WTTC warns US border policy could cut visitor spend by more than USD 15bn - Get updated on what's happening in tourism!

Proposed changes to the U.S. ESTA programme requiring broader social media disclosures could significantly reduce international travel demand and weaken the U.S. Travel & Tourism economy, according to new research from the World Travel & Tourism Council. The analysis warns that the policy could lead to substantial losses in visitor spending, GDP contribution, and employment if implemented.

High awareness, fast impact on sentiment

The findings draw on a multi-country survey across ESTA-eligible markets combined with detailed economic impact modelling. Awareness of the proposed policy is already widespread, with 66% of respondents saying they are familiar with the potential change. This level of awareness suggests that any implementation would have an immediate effect on travel sentiment and behaviour.

Around 34% of respondents say they would be somewhat or much less likely to visit the U.S. over the next two to three years if the changes proceed. By contrast, only 12% say they would be more likely to travel, indicating a clear net decline in intent.

Perceptions of welcome and competitiveness

Beyond travel plans, the research highlights broader perception challenges. While a minority view the policy as a signal of strength, a larger share believe it would make the U.S. feel less welcoming and less attractive for leisure and business travel. More respondents think the policy would harm U.S. economic prosperity rather than strengthen it, and most say it would either have no effect on their personal safety or make them feel less safe while travelling.

When benchmarked against other major destinations, the proposed U.S. entry requirement is perceived as significantly more intrusive than policies in the UK, Japan, Canada, and Western Europe, placing the U.S. at a competitive disadvantage in the global tourism market.

Economic risks under high-impact scenarios

WTTC’s modelling, developed in partnership with GSIQ and Oxford Economics, indicates that under a high-impact scenario the U.S. could receive around 4.7 million fewer international arrivals in 2026. This would represent a 23.7% reduction from ESTA countries compared with a business-as-usual baseline.

Corresponding losses in visitor spending are estimated at up to USD 15.7 billion, with wider Travel & Tourism GDP losses reaching USD 21.5 billion. Employment impacts could affect as many as 157,000 U.S. jobs, roughly three times the average number of jobs created per month in 2025. The policy could also further weaken inbound performance in a market that has already lost around 11 million visitors between 2019 and 2025.

Call for careful assessment

Gloria Guevara, President and CEO of the World Travel & Tourism Council, said:

“Security at the U.S. border is vital but the planned policy changes will damage job creation, which the U.S. Administration values so much. Our research finds that over 150,000 jobs could be lost if this policy goes ahead, the same number usually created each quarter in the U.S. Even modest shifts in visitor behaviour, put off by the planned changes, will have real economic consequences for U.S. Travel & Tourism, particularly in a highly competitive global market.”

She added that WTTC urges U.S. policymakers to carefully assess the policy and its implications for the economy and jobs, noting that Travel & Tourism remains a critical driver of growth, employment, and international connectivity.

Conclusion

The research points to a clear risk that expanded social media disclosure requirements at the U.S. border could reduce travel demand, erode competitiveness, and impose measurable economic costs. WTTC concludes that any policy changes should be weighed against their potential to undermine one of the U.S.’s most important export sectors.

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