Executive Brief explores who will control travel in 2046 - Get updated on what's happening in tourism!

Artificial intelligence, data control and growing inequalities may fundamentally change how travel works by 2046. A new Executive Brief developed by Phocuswright and ITB Berlin examines possible futures for the industry and explores who will ultimately control travel: technology companies, governments or travelers themselves.

The analysis builds on discussions held during the first Leadership Exchange at ITB Berlin on March 3, 2026 at CityCube Berlin. The closed-door forum brought together senior travel industry leaders in a strategic think tank format to examine how technological transformation, data ownership and regulatory frameworks could reshape global travel.

Dr. Mario Tobias, CEO of Messe Berlin, said: “The travel industry is entering a structural shift unlike anything we’ve seen since the early days of digitalization. With the Leadership Exchange, we created a space where decision-makers don’t just discuss the future but actively shape it. The choices we make now around trust, data and value creation will define the industry for decades to come.”

Artificial intelligence reshapes power structures

Participants agreed that artificial intelligence will significantly reduce friction across the travel journey, from inspiration and planning to booking and customer service. At the same time, the technology could shift influence away from traditional industry structures.

In a future where travelers rely on intelligent agents to search, compare and book travel products, control over data flows and algorithms may determine who holds power within the travel ecosystem.

This transformation could also challenge established brands and intermediaries as AI-driven platforms increasingly become the primary interface between travelers and travel providers.

Trust becomes a key economic factor

In an environment dominated by artificial intelligence, trust could become one of the most valuable assets in the travel industry. Instead of being tied to a single company or platform, trust may emerge through countless digital interactions, user-generated content and community signals.

However, the increasing number of AI-driven booking channels may also blur accountability and increase the risk of trust failures if systems provide inaccurate or misleading recommendations.

Mieke De Schepper, CEO of Sunweb Group, said: “Trust is not an algorithm. There’s no single recipe, and in the future, not only companies, but also consumers will be assessed on whether they can be trusted.”

Personalization becomes the central value driver

As AI agents increasingly handle search and discovery processes, personalization is expected to become one of the most important value drivers in travel. Experiences could be tailored in real time based on extensive data insights and individual preferences.

Timothy O’Neil-Dunne, principal at T2Impact, said: “By 2029, discovery as we know it today will almost disappear. The real value will sit with personal agents that act on our behalf.”

This shift could weaken the role of traditional booking channels and reduce the influence of brands if algorithms become the main source of decision-making for travelers.

Travel access shaped by inequality and regulation

While technology could make travel planning easier and more efficient, structural challenges remain. Increasing mobility may foster global connectivity but could also intensify overtourism and place additional pressure on destinations and infrastructure.

At the same time, economic inequality, geopolitical developments and government regulations may increasingly determine who can travel freely.

Stephen Joyce, global strategy lead at Protect Group, said: “To control immigration and overtourism, travel is becoming more of a privilege. Countries will either visa their way out of tourism or simply price people out.”

Industry future between fragmentation and consolidation

Artificial intelligence could empower smaller niche providers by enabling highly targeted offerings for specific traveler segments. At the same time, concentration of data and technological capabilities may strengthen large global platforms and lead to greater market consolidation.

Participants at the Leadership Exchange agreed that the next three years will be critical for the industry. Decisions made today regarding data governance, trust frameworks and technological integration are likely to shape the structure of global travel for decades to come.

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