IATA Forecasts $36 Billion in Airline Profits for 2025 Amid Global Uncertainties

International

Global airline profits are expected to rise by 11.1% in 2025, reaching $36 billion despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatile oil prices, and macroeconomic uncertainty, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

In its newly released Global Outlook for Air Transport, IATA projects total airline revenues to hit a record $979 billion, with industry expenses forecast at $913 billion. The net profit margin is set to improve to 3.7%, up from 3.4% in 2024.

Passenger demand is expected to reach a historic peak, with nearly 5 billion travelers projected to fly in 2025 – a 4% year-on-year increase. Air cargo volumes are also set to edge up by 0.6% to 69 million tons.

While the outlook is broadly positive, IATA highlighted several risks that continue to impact the sector, including the war in Ukraine, intensifying trade disputes, political fragmentation, and uncertainty over U.S. trade policy developments. These factors, the report notes, could weigh on business travel and air freight demand.

Jet fuel prices have emerged as a key bright spot, falling by 13% compared to 2024 and 1% below earlier forecasts, providing financial relief for carriers.

Despite challenges, IATA remains cautiously optimistic. The report underscores that by most measures – including profitability and traffic growth – 2025 is expected to outperform 2024, albeit falling short of previous projections.